He's going to be bad. It doesnt matter how you get me your questions, just make sure you get them to me and Ill answer them every week. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 17Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 4Post-Draft Positional Rank: 4Tier: 5. In addition, you can find detailed profiles of all of the top prospects in my pre-draft profiles. Instead, Dulcich likely needs Denver to shift towards a Darren Waller-style approach to the position. Like I said: teams change. Fields isnt going to suddenly lose his rushing ability, but if hes given even just one top-tier receiving option (see Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs), he may be able to pull the reins in a bit on the rushing while making up for the difference with his passing. Lance has that, and he probably has that more than any other signal-caller in this class. there's no shame in panic-picking Isaiah Likely. Part of the trepidation around him is how he scored those fantasy points. He has a complete production profile (aside from not being an early-declare receiver), and his prospect score in my model is well above average for a fourth-round pick. Late-Round Fantasy Football creator. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 4Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 3Post-Draft Positional Rank: 3Tier: 2. For Whom The Tolls. He's 6'3'', 205 pounds in a class that lacks size. 2023 Rookie Rankings; Dynasty Top 250 Rankings; Dynasty QB Rankings; . That's the fewest pass attempts in football. And then last year happened, where he was injured after four games. John Harbaugh knows this and has talked about this. Through those contests, though, he had more receiving yards than Heisman winner Devonta Smith. He was my pre-draft WR2 for a reason. The Lions entered the draft with Breshad Perriman, Tyrell Williams, Kalif Raymond, and Quintez Cephus as their top wideouts, so any wide receiver selected by Detroit would likely shoot up rookie draft boards. That's a recipe for disaster. Lawrence enters the league with three years of starting experience and an adjusted yards per attempt rate that got better with each season after being a top recruit in the country as he exited high school. As usual you provide solid information as all dynasty degenerates prepare for the combines and draft. YouTube Video VVUxOTFQNURweDRGeFloQ1NFdjFLRTZnLjNkcHNnQ1NRU2Rr, YouTube Video VVUxOTFQNURweDRGeFloQ1NFdjFLRTZnLnFxTzF4ZVZ6NHBn, YouTube Video VVUxOTFQNURweDRGeFloQ1NFdjFLRTZnLjlDdkFrZ3BHTks0, YouTube Video VVUxOTFQNURweDRGeFloQ1NFdjFLRTZnLjhlTjNQcDdpUm5J, and the list is filled with bust after bust after bust. Overall, I felt it was definitely worth the money to have what I consider to be exceptional "beat the fantasy market" content. With JuJu Smith-Schuster taking a significant amount of slot snaps, Moore will be playing at least somewhat on the outside, giving him an exciting ceiling with Patrick Mahomes. Elite draft capital is a big deal. It changed his life. As a member, you receive exclusive content, community access, behind-the-scenes updates, and the pride of fueling work that matters to you. It was good to see Nico Collins get Day 2 draft capital, and I think it was deserved. Ive found some noticeable trends that are actionable or at least a decent guide to expectation. A behind the scene look at ranking methodology and individual rankings vs the consensus. There are four wide receivers who could easily be placed in this eighth overall spot -- I'm just opting to put, The main reason I'm high on Marshall -- and likely higher than the consensus -- is because he's one of the only earlier-round wide receivers who checks nearly every alpha wide receiver box. His sub-20-year-old breakout age is strong, and he's an early declare, too. You'll receive a spreadsheet each week with the same information JJ looks at for his analysis, along with season-long and dynasty rankings. He now joins two other first-rounders since 2006 with a rate above 4.0 while being drafted in Round 1: Demaryius Thomas, Once the Alabama wide receivers are off your rookie draft board, you're faced with a real dilemma. Agree. Share on Twitter. Latest YouTube video youtube: https://youtu.be/Ic-nV8FMQYk Links: Database: https://www.patreon.com/posts/46218140, Jake Anderson (@NFLdrafttalker) made most of my graphics, Zac Reed (@tacitassassin13) made the intro and some of the background music, Gabe Geering (@FFmanbun) made the Chicken or Crow theme song for @dynastycrossroads. We open up the DLF Mailbag to answer your questions. As an underneath option on a potentially prolific passing offense, Bell is someone I want plenty of exposure to. Had he landed in a better situation, it would be an easier sell. The running back position also has some very good options outside the current or soon-to-see if youre not up to date RB1 Bijan Robinson. The approach is extremely nuanced and analytical. Read millions of eBooks and audiobooks on the web, iPad, iPhone and Android. If he seems a bit defensive, forgive him, it's just a Philly thing. He can be found on Twitter @PatKerrane. I think that cutoff is after Wan'Dale Robinson and Jalen Tolbert, but that is partly why I'm below ADP on John Metchie and Alec Pierce. . Try DLF Premium for only $7.99 with a Monthly Subscription. Najee Harris was at the top of my pre-draft rookie rankings, and then he was selected by the Steelers in Round 1, giving him the best landing spot of any running back in this class. Zach Wilson is a promising prospect, there's a new coaching staff, and even if slot receiver Jamison Crowder sticks around, he's a free agent next season. He's a do-it-all back. My pre-draft rankings have changed, but not drastically. Host of the award-winning Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast &@LiveTheStreamFF. He scored pretty well in my model post-draft. Pat Kerrane is the co-host of Ship Chasing, an avid high stakes player and a full blown "dynasty guy." But -- but! Smith was a top-10 pick, and even though we've seen top-10 busts in the past, a lot of them were objectively avoidable. He's not Kyle Pitts, but Freiermuth had solid production at Penn State with a well above average breakout age. There's a chance Jones hits his ceiling as a passer -- he's playing for a coaching staff that has obviously gotten a lot from a pocket passer in the past. Here's the thing. 3. I would be less concerned with their outsized touchdown scoring if their target shares were elite, but Watsons 15.2% share and Dotsons 15.9% share were just okay. That draft capital evaluation is important when separating the two, since games played and experience is a key indicator for NFL success, and neither player had that. 783 episodes totalling 227 hours, 19 minutes. Walker carried the ball eight times for 88 yards and a touchdown. On the other hand, White's receiving profile gives him RB1 upside if he can eventually work into an Aaron Jones-type role. The sample size is small, but Devonta Smith hits that minimum threshold. I found some of the charts he included somewhat hard/unintuitive to read. He may play a little undersized -- he weighed in at 215 pounds at his Pro Day, but. Treylon Burks, Drake London, and Garrett Wilson are good enough prospects that all three are defensible picks as the WR1 in this class. My model doesn't mind Tutu Atwell. Zach Wilson was outplayed by Mike White in 2021; it earned him Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. Instead of a player like Montgomery, though, Green Bay's hoping they have more of a, He just wasn't overly productive, and it's tough to get super excited about landing with arguably the worst run organization in sports. Archived post. If you're unfamiliar with JJ's work, it will change how you think about fantasy. The Atlanta Falcons opting to not draft a running backnot great! From a fit standpoint, it's understandable why the Packers drafted Rodgers. Tight End. JJ wrote an e-book called The Late-Round Quarterback in 2012. Like Javonte Williams, Sermon was a trade-up running back -- San Francisco moved up to Pick 88 to select him. Although a PPR scoring system is assumed, keep in mind that a switch to non . Toney's electric with the ball in his hands, and he's still learning the wide receiver position after playing quarterback in high school and serving more as a gadget player until his final season at Florida. Love hearing this. Top 25 First-Year Player Rankings (FYPD) - Dynasty Prospects for 2023 Fantasy Baseball. JJ Zachariason @LateRoundQB Feb 24th, 2023. A behind the scene look at ranking methodology and individual rankings vs the consensus. His variable hesitancy at the line in 2020 was gone in 2021, as he was decisive, quick, and violent when hitting the hole. Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure JJ coined the term "running back deadzone" which is now used by pretty much every other analyst in the industry. Use it as a tool in your arsenal, but do not use it as the end-all decision-maker. There've only been six players in the model -- which dates back to 2006 -- with that high of a prospect score: Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, and Calvin Johnson. Sleepers, as Ive told you before, dont exist and suck when they are drafted higher. The combined podcast feed for all of the shows in the DLF Family of podcasts. The problem I have with this logic is that we can't assume Lamar Jackson makes the historic passing efficiency leap that Josh Allen made, and we can't assume Rashod Bateman is as impactful of a player as Stefon Diggs is, even if we love Bateman. One of the biggest draft-day winners was Trey Sermon, who ended up going to San Francisco in Round 3. According to Dynasty League Football, Darnell Mooney's trade value is less than the Superflex/TE-premium 2.08. Let me know and I'll get to them in the next edition of the @DLFootball Dynasty Fantasy Football mailbag! If you're an avid listener over the last couple of years, you're not going to find a ton of new information. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 13Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 9Post-Draft Positional Rank: 9Tier: 7. Dynasty Rankings. Post-Draft Positional Rank: 1. Keaontay Ingram is my favorite ultra-cheap contingency play behind James Conner. Dulcich profiles as a move tight end, meaning that he could theoretically share the field with traditional inline tight end Albert Okwuegbunam. In other words, 2023 is an ideal class to trade up in. In 2019, they were first. Print. White, a highly efficient college receiver, is now paired with Tom Brady, who throws to his running backsany running backregardless of the situation. JJ Zachariason @LateRoundQB Apr 28th, 2020 Share on Facebook Share on Twitter If your dynasty roster came out of the NFL draft completely unscathed, consider yourself lucky. A couple of things, 1. They waited on the position and got Amon-Ra St. Brown in the fourth with the 112th pick. Yeah, yeah -- I know. Host of the award . And with Austin Ekeler potentially moving on after 2023, Spiller has an unlikely but plausible path to becoming a long-term starter. In Baltimore as the fourth option at best? He's also the rankings editor at DLF. Does anyone worry about those players regressing? Trade Addicts Podcast 251 Spending Valentines with a Heartthrob, Dynasty Crossroads Episode 257 Travis May, pt 3, SuperFlex SuperShow 233 Not Extreme But Extremely Effective, Dynasty Theory 191 Patron Startup Breakdown. Or, at least, there could be competition. Want more info about DLF Premium? Chad is a member of the Fantasy Sports . Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Instead of buying low on a player like Burks, Id rather conserve those assets and buy high on another player. In the slot as a Freshman and Sophomore, though, St. Brown competed production-wise with teammate Michael Pittman Jr., and that helped give him a high-end breakout age. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/APre-Draft Positional Rank: N/APost-Draft Positional Rank: 18Tier: 11. He's a bigger-bodied back at 230 pounds who also can catch passes out of the backfield. JJ wrote the book The Late-Round Quarterback and he hosts The Late-Round Podcast . The goat himself! Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 30Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 9Post-Draft Positional Rank: 6Tier: 8. Our annual Dynasty & Rookie Draft Guides As I noted in my pre-draft rankings, one of my favorite stats about Fields came from numberFire's own Jim Sannes: 87.6% of Justin Fields' attempts last season came against top-50 defenses according to Bill Connelly's SP+ method. Fantasy football doesn't have to feel so luck-driven. He had a reception share of almost 11% during his final collegiate season, his yards per team play was well above average compared to other backs in the class, and his size-speed combo -- he ran a . His production then dipped pretty dramatically last year, and the rest is history. The thought was that Wallace would be a Day 2 pick, but he fell all the way to Pick 131, and he fell to -- of course -- the Baltimore Ravens. at Memphis. Gain Instant Access to this article and so much more. There's just a lot of ambiguity surrounding his situation right now. You can preorder the 2023 prospect guide below. That's 15 if you discard Ja'Marr Chase, Devonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle. Another player Im not buying is George Pickens. thanks for tuning in, Your late round quarterback pdf from 2012 was what turned me on to this strategy. From who to trade for during the season to strategy that will change the way you think about the game, youre bound to learn something new from each episode. (Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images) I hope you like low-ceiling quarterbacks as much as the Steelers. A lot of that is easy to explain, to be fair. Shifting to more drop backs doesn't mean a more efficient offense, even in this pass-friendly NFL era. 2022 Fantasy Football Draft Targets, Avoids, Strategies with JJ Zachariason. That makes him a top-20 prospect at the position since 2006. 6. No guarantees are made for any specific outcome. It's not an NFT it's a freaking fantasy football guide. For better context of how high Dotson and Watsons TD/Target rate was last year, Davante Adams (who led the league with 14 touchdowns) scored on a 7.8% rate and Travis Kelce (second in the league with 12 touchdowns) scored on 7.9% of his targets. Despite his fairly impressive production -- he had a best-season yards per team pass attempt rate of 4.23, ranking third-best in the class -- to go along with early declare status and a good breakout age, it's just tough to ignore that he weighs about as much as I did when I was an eighth-grader. In fact, he could take over the Houston backfield if he was as criminally underused in college as some suspect. Find details and individual feeds for all of these podcasts, as well as a ton of dynasty fantasy football content at https://dynastyleaguefootball.com. If you've got an early second-round pick in single-quarterback leagues, you're in a fairly tough spot. Trey McBride is stuck behind Zach Ertz, but that didn't stop Dallas Goedert from emerging. We are looking to add some new contributors to our talented team. Is Drake London undervalued in dynasty leagues right now? Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 12Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 8Post-Draft Positional Rank: 16Tier: 10. , at the very latest, will be gone next season when he becomes a free agent. Use Promo-Code: YARDSPER for a 100% deposit match up to $100! And like Jones in 2020 and Zach Wilson now, it should be easy to trade him for more than the mid-late first it took to get him. 2009-2023 numberFire, Inc. Certain headlines thanks to Rotoworld. But, again, I'm wrong all the time. pahowdy writes for dynastyleaguefootball.com. After the draft, Meyer called Etienne his "third-down back" while saying James Robinson and Carlos Hyde would be the team's 1-2 punch, seemingly on early downs. He had one of the best scores of any prospect in my model before last week's event, and he's now a 96th percentile prospect in my model. Looking for a Late-Round Prospect Guide from a previous season? Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 11Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 7Post-Draft Positional Rank: 7Tier: 4. The consensus QB1 in this class went first overall in the draft, and if you snag him in your rookie drafts, you're likely getting a starter for the next decade. Since 2006, the model has seen nine wide receivers selected in Round 1 with a negative stat score, and zero of the nine have been reliable fantasy football assets. Chris Olave (13.21), Garrett Wilson (12.69), Christian Watson (11.72), Jahan Dotson (10.88), and Drake London (10.51) all eclipsed the feat last year. JJ Zachariason of Late-Roun. Dyami Brown was a big play waiting to happen at North Carolina. Fantasy is supposed to be fun and if buying a fantasy guide for $25 gives me some fun in this brutal world then you're God damn right I will buy it! To get the full benefits of numberFire, please log in. Insider. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/APre-Draft Positional Rank: N/APost-Draft Positional Rank: 9Tier: 10. Dynasty Crossroads Episode 258 JJ Zachariason, Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2023 Early 4th, YouTube Video VVUxOTFQNURweDRGeFloQ1NFdjFLRTZnLjNkcHNnQ1NRU2Rr, YouTube Video VVUxOTFQNURweDRGeFloQ1NFdjFLRTZnLnFxTzF4ZVZ6NHBn, YouTube Video VVUxOTFQNURweDRGeFloQ1NFdjFLRTZnLjlDdkFrZ3BHTks0, YouTube Video VVUxOTFQNURweDRGeFloQ1NFdjFLRTZnLjhlTjNQcDdpUm5J, The DLF Dynasty Podcast #557 Off-Season Player Movement Mock Draft & A Combine Preview, Trade Addicts Podcast 252 Episode Names are Hard to Think of, Dynasty Theory 192 2023 Quarterback Movement, The DLF Dynasty Podcast #556 Rookie ADP & More Coaching Talk. Everything exists within a range of outcomes except Sam Darnold. Many have pointed to the 2020 Bills as the perfect example of a run-heavy team moving to become a pass-heavy one. The biggest faller from these pre- to post-draft rankings is Tylan Wallace. Whether you're in a dynasty or redradft fantasy football league, you need to know the best options from the 2022 rookie class. 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