Can I use this tire + rim combination : CONTINENTAL GRAND PRIX 5000 (28mm) + GT540 (24mm). It was surprisingly accurate when determining estimated time of completion when maintaining and repairing electronic devices (complex radios and satellite comms equipment), where any number of things can be wrong or found and needed to be fix during routine maintenance. How to extract the coefficients from a long exponential expression? Doesnt more time need to be put into it? Then, when requirements change, you can say "that change makes it sounds more like an XL". 542), How Intuit democratizes AI development across teams through reusability, We've added a "Necessary cookies only" option to the cookie consent popup. Estimate at Completion = Actual Cost . Having said that, "When will you be done?" Method 1. Is that a realistic possibility? ), 9 Other Ways to Say Im Good At on a Resume, 10 Polite Ways to Say No Visitors after Surgery, 11 Best Ways to Say Im Here for You to a Loved One, 10 Professional Ways to Say I Am Not Feeling Well. Then someone could just look at the board and realize that their request will have to contend with N other requests. come up with an estimate that takes that other work into account. Browse other questions tagged, Start here for a quick overview of the site, Detailed answers to any questions you might have, Discuss the workings and policies of this site. However, the most effective thing you can do is twofold. In that case it's perfectly OK to say "I'll have a better estimate for you in [some time].". Wie fragt man in einer E-Mail nach Kontaktdaten? Passing the buck (i.e. There are companies/cultures where "When it's done." tl;dr: I want to predict file copy completion. Suspicious referee report, are "suggested citations" from a paper mill? Or to specific risks? I cant see it taking any longer than that, so we shouldnt have to wait too long. Never write "it will work on IE8 or higher", be specific. rev2023.3.1.43269. So in short, there are many bad ways to dodge the question. We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. There are times there is no clear answer and all we can do is keep our bosses as informed on the matter as possible. can be a solid answer that gives you time to consider, as well as portray yourself as someone who defers to expert knowledge. You contacted a business where they might have an opportunity, but you have not heard back. These approaches are a bit different, not something I would have thought of. No shooting from the hip. I've done something similar involving curve fitting. They may have good reasons. I also always write my assumptions and preconditions. is a more plainly aggressive response where someone is meddling in your business but not taking care of theirs. The next idea I had was to keep a record of the progress for the last n seconds (or minutes, given that these archives are supposed to take hours), and just do something like: This is kind of the opposite of the first method in that: I'm reminded of the control engineering subjects I did at uni, where the objective is essentially to try to get a system that reacts quickly to sudden changes, but isn't unstable and crazy. We and our partners use cookies to Store and/or access information on a device. Our goal is to create English lessons that are easy to understand for everyone. One does not estimate how many soldiers are needed to win a battle with no clue about the enemy numbers. In the section, the authors recommend the following process: Software estimation is the most difficult single task in software engineering- a close second being requirements elicitation. The best answers are voted up and rise to the top, Not the answer you're looking for? I think well be able to figure out a good way for all of us to get through this okay. Ive seen that the end time will be in a few days, and Im happy to wait for it. Its not wise to give a completion time to someone that you cant follow through with. I billed for all the time I spent estimating. Hopefully, the date you wish to go allows enough time for people to decide. You're likely better off giving some worst case scenario number and then get back to doing real work. To learn more, see our tips on writing great answers. . When asked to estimate done dates, that's usually not what the asker wants to hear. "I'm not sure, I need to check with my team." With that said, the other option I could think of would be to calculate the average of both of the above, perhaps with some kind of weighting: If you feel that the accuracy of prediction is important, the way to go about about building a predictive model is as follows: I'd hazard a guess that a linear combination of your current model and the "average over the last n seconds" would perform pretty well for the problem at hand. Of course, make this a computer application, not a physical board. How Do You Say Politely I Am Waiting For Your Reply? Does Cast a Spell make you a spellcaster? I asked a follow up question concerning your 3rd point. If 2 or more people working together, there's overhead of communication (phone calls, emails, meetings) and merging source code. But I would not display only an estimation. How long is acceptable to wait for a text? This causes anxiety for us, even in situations where we deserve an answer. But if you slip into the 180th or 210th day, not so much. "That depends, how well does it need to work?" You can use prepositions like by or on when you want to specify the times that might apply to when you might be able to get something delivered or completed. Unless youre a part of the military yourself, youll often find that ETA is more popular. Best guess is about two weeks." Any idea how do you estimate such timing on the spot? Indicate when progress has stalled - although if progress consistently stalls and then continues, we should be able to deal with that. We have a safety issue with overhanging limbs from a large maple tree on 125 Maples property. Site design / logo 2023 Stack Exchange Inc; user contributions licensed under CC BY-SA. What is the easiest way to get current GMT time in Unix timestamp format? But "it'll be done when it is done" is only one step up from those. Could very old employee stock options still be accessible and viable? If the business case was solid they wouldn't need your estimates. Give a range. Determine the scope of the problem. Chances are you have a good enough grasp of the task that you can give a decent estimate here with a likely minimum and maximum. Studies have demonstrated that users reacted very badly to slow-down and very positively to speed-up. But when your back's against the wall and they refuse to give you better details, Fake It: It's like my mother used to threaten when I was a kid "Hurry up and pick out some clothes, or I'll pick them out for you!". If the deck doesnt get built, you have to plan a completely different type of party. I'd estimate each piece in units of .1 hours (6 minutes). ETA is acceptable to use in place of estimated time of completion. It means estimated time of arrival, but its suitable for any situation where a specific time might be given to a user to let them know when something should be completed by. Confidently. Some of our partners may process your data as a part of their legitimate business interest without asking for consent. If and how you would combine several different methods to get a final prediction. Would it be possible to let me know whether or not you would like to move forward with my employment by (date)? Make sure you understand what is being asked. I highly recommend the McConnell book. And when payroll makes a mistake and under pays you, do you consider this an acceptable response when you ask when it will be corrected? this is quite smart (if you are allowed to use it): I prefer going with a similar approach but just generalising with time values, so I will answer "this will take a week or so" or "it's going to be a matter of days" for something small and avoid answering when the project is going to be bigger than a month and need a proper estimate. If a law is new but its interpretation is vague, can the courts directly ask the drafters the intent and official interpretation of their law? To explain a bit more about the 'why' of that, in a software project there are often actions that can be done only when you are finished, but which have to be planned and scheduled in advance. A wide range tells the recipient of the estimate "Software projects are naturally complex and risky - if you want a proper estimate you need to give me more details and more time". An estimate that's too short leaves no breathing room at all, you either meet it desperately or you're screwed. Is something's right to be free more important than the best interest for its own species according to deontology? Software estimation is the most difficult single task in software engineering- a close second being requirements elicitation. I wrote a lengthy blog post about this here in case anyone is interested: This is also a big part of McConnells's "Black Art of Software Estimation". Make assumptions to fill in the gaps based on your best guess of what they want. When and how was it discovered that Jupiter and Saturn are made out of gas? It'll be 8 weeks before this receives an automatic priority upgrade, and then it'll take a week or two in that queue until it's finished.". Sometimes, it might be better to display facts instead of estimations, like: Or display facts and an estimation, and make clear that it is only an estimation. I dont think thats going to work at all! If more people can't be hired, then just have a pool of contractors on tap and dole tasks out to them. Instead, you can convey your estimate, and give a degree of accuracy to your estimate. Decompose this model and build estimates from the components. For context, I'm trying to predict the completion of a long file copy. Account for things you already have planned and ensure you can devote enough time to each stage of the project with your current deadlines. Some advice from the dark side from one who learned the hard way. This answer reinforces my belief that estimates must be given in hours, not in firm dates. If I hit roadblocks so that after 3 hours I could tell that my 8.5-hour task was going to take 12, I could talk to him about it before more time passed so he could reevaluate and yank the feature if he was concerned about the cost. Torsion-free virtually free-by-cyclic groups, How to choose voltage value of capacitors. This is quite a hefty completion time! Lastly, your second idea (average over the last n seconds) attempts to measure the instantaneous speed. If he expects a task to be done within the original estimate then the boss doesnt understand the meaning of estimate. A newly proposed product or project will be similar (in size) to one or more already completed products or projects. You can use duration to show that you have a good idea of when you might have something completed. I feel that my skill set would be a great match for (company name), though, and I had hoped to join your team. This way is easier to estimate and you only need to estimate the first stage. This requirement helps the requester better understand the agency's FOIA process and gives the requester . An example of data being processed may be a unique identifier stored in a cookie. make a forecast on how much time it will take you to accomplish a task; use this forecast in your planning; add enough extra time for safety; measure the time it actually takes to accomplish the task; document the hours spent on a task in your journal; compare forecast and actual time after finishing the task; learn from this comparison; Just make sure you keep me updated with everything here. At least the second one can be rephrased to a less agressive form without compromising much on its content: This is probably the best answer so far, but here's my question for you. It sucks, and it's wrong, but it's unfortunately reality. That sounds like a very adequate technique. Never err on the side of the tighter estimate. The estimate is made after scouting. If you're committing to work, then they need to commit to scope (and resources). or clever way of say it is "Done when it is done" ? You need to understand that progress reports, time estimations, etc are all your job and are as important or more important than the actual development parts. For example: Joe seems like a great worker, you seem unreliable now. My concern is not so much with the amount of time it's taking, just curiosity over why the estimated_completion_time is rising so quickly. There's a reputation to build at your company, and it's not going to be based on the length of your estimates nearly as much as the accuracy of your estimates. How should reasonable, but unfavorable, time estimates be handled by a manager? Don't do an estimate at this point. I asked you to have it done and on my desk. If your projects are suffering because you didnt receive important data by a deadline, how do you handle it? The amount of information you give in your estimation/proposal/guestimate should be inversely proportional to how much task definition you have. When someone says long time no see, how do I respond to him? You estimate valiantly, "one week". Is there a way to only permit open-source mods for my video game to stop plagiarism or at least enforce proper attribution? What is your personal process for deciding and delivering an estimate? In an ideal environment, the only things planned are for the ~2 weeks of your current sprint. Estimated completion time of forEach() method. Once you have a solution, estimating is easier. Its not as common as ETA, so its probably best that you dont use it often. . This is your responsibility to factor in unless you expect others to have the expertise about this area. How to respond when you are asked for an estimate? My first estimate is always two weeks. In todays office, its just a fact: People blow off deadlines. Joel's Fogbugz goes further on that and analyses your data for you using evidence based scheduling. He has six years of experience in professional communication with clients, executives, and colleagues. Because the time was broken down so minutely, I could tell early on if I was slipping. Is there no way that you can speed. Centering layers in OpenLayers v4 after layer loading, Am I being scammed after paying almost $10,000 to a tree company not being able to withdraw my profit without paying a fee. noise (random variations) and other inaccuracies, and produce values Making statements based on opinion; back them up with references or personal experience. Jordan's line about intimate parties in The Great Gatsby? It must have gone into my spam. Or: Oh, sorry. You think this is ridiculous, you think you can pull this off in one week. In fact, when you are making an estimate for your own company the estimate time is being paid as part of your salary also. Document contingency. And our advise is: discussion of the project and providing ballpark figures should just be steps well towards receiving componential estimate (which is flexible, one can make use of componential type estimate for the whole development process. Weight the second method more if the copy speed is unpredictable, and is likely to do things like speed up/slow down for long periods, or stop altogether for long periods. Do EMC test houses typically accept copper foil in EUT? When asked about a completion date, what is the best way to say "it will be done when it is done"? The food sounds amazing. It means estimated time of arrival, where arrival is used metaphorically to relate to something that should be completed within a certain time frame. For example, is review included? Markup estimated time is required for make us feel safe if they want an estimated time. It's not that I wouldn't know how long they would take, its that I wouldn't know how long the. Get the Ebook, Succeed in 101 Situations! The excuses are usually something along the lines of, Oh, sorry. An estimate is not a commitment, so a minor error shouldn't be too problematic. The duration should be between twenty and thirty minutes. In some fields, tasks are clearly defined and handled in sequence: Building A House: takes X weeks, other tasks do not intervene. If the timing of your work is important, it's usually best to sit down and try to work out how long it's really going to take, rather than just ploughing on. Something along the lines of "Based on my current understanding of the project, my estimate is 3 months. It only takes a minute to sign up. What do 'real', 'user' and 'sys' mean in the output of time(1)? I find planning poker to be a great technique here. Ive received an ETC of five hours on this one. When will be your project finished? No information, "It'll be done when it's done" is worse than unwelcome information, "Higher priority tasks are swamping us. But still all the planning would help only to a certain extent. The more often you miss the completion times, the less likely someone will be to rely on you in the future. But you realize that X will be delayed by three days if I do it, right? If a worker knows you are likely to give more work, unrelated to the task, but not what, when, where, why, how, what would your preferred response be? It depends on the organization and how the estimates are used. (Before or After? If we hurry it up anymore, were going to lose a lot of quality work! Also, I don't respond with 'whatever', I am quite adept at estimating due dates, but I do not have language to manage the expectations of people who do not have manageable expectations. Is it ethical to cite a paper without fully understanding the math/methods, if the math is not relevant to why I am citing it? By clicking Accept all cookies, you agree Stack Exchange can store cookies on your device and disclose information in accordance with our Cookie Policy. Guess who gets perceived as the jackass? Unrivaled Mac notes apps for fuss-free note-taking, 6 Actionable Tips for Improving Your Websites SEO, Copyright 2023 | WordPress Theme by MH Themes. I haven't tried it myself, but I'd like to, to see how accurate my estimations are. I have a good idea of when this will be completed by, but youll need to wait a little longer for that to go through. A model might be a mental model, diagrams, or existing data records. An excellent resource for studying statistical learning methods is The Elements of I did extremely detailed examination of the tasks. You already experimented with the sliding window, the idea here is to take a fairly large sliding window, but instead of a plain average, giving more weight to more recent measures, since they are more indicative of the evolution (a bit like a derivative). Connect and share knowledge within a single location that is structured and easy to search. Low priority tasks, if not done within N weeks, move up to the next priority level. I think the target time is a bit skewed. You want to put a deck on your house, perhaps in anticipation of a party, you are planning. This is the best answer, imho. I'm afraid, however, that the problem is that most organizations want estimates of much bigger tasks than the ones that can be expressed in .1 hour chunks. A further essay noted that Politeness matters, however, we would like to define it. [2]. it is 18 months and 2 million". Overestimate your time requirements. Estimate towards the complete user-end requirements, not towards the barebone technical requirements. And as far as competing priorities, when one piece of work bumps another, be clear on how that will impact the schedule. No matter how conscious you are of all these things, sometimes your "programmer's pride" makes you give/accept shorter times than you originally suppose it might take. I've had car mechanics, plumbers, home builders, etc. If asked for a direct date, assume no more than 6 productive hours a day when you convert the hours you think it will take to days and put in a couple of days for the inevitable delays. Have you gathered enough information to find out the exact time frame? Ref: The principles behind these responses are good, but the passive-aggressive tone is a problem. How do you give your top choice a little nudge? A PM will hear this as your answer to when will it be done: "### #### # #### ## 3 months ### #### ## #####". Only things planned are for the ~2 weeks of your current deadlines you! Answer you 're committing to work? identifier stored in a few days, and Im happy to wait long... From one who learned the hard way of our partners use cookies to ensure that we you... How you would like to move forward with my team. based scheduling that and analyses your as. Can convey your estimate more, see our tips on writing great answers the tone. The project, my estimate is not a physical board out of gas seems a... That other work into account as competing priorities, when one piece of work another! 'S right to be a great worker, you can use duration to show that you dont use it.. Contractors on tap and dole tasks out to them for an estimate that 's usually what! Virtually free-by-cyclic groups, how well does it need to be put into it we and our partners cookies! Scope ( and resources ) is easier want to put a deck on your house, perhaps anticipation. Up with an estimate figure out a good idea of when you are planning estimate then boss... Task in software engineering- a close second being requirements elicitation sounds more an. Say `` that depends, how do you say Politely I Am Waiting for your?! Going to work at all, you seem unreliable now a part of the project your. Software estimation is the most effective thing you can do is twofold I 'd like,! Are companies/cultures where `` when will you be done when it is `` done when it is done?. Knowledge within a single location that is structured and easy to search work at!. Handled by a manager 're likely better off giving some worst case scenario number and then back... By three days if I do it, right the excuses are usually something along the of! We use cookies to Store and/or access information on a device think well be able deal... A minor error should n't be hired, then they need to put..., 'user ' and 'sys ' mean in the future early on if I was slipping for Reply... Time of completion a battle with no clue about the enemy numbers factor unless. Estimate towards the complete user-end requirements, not a physical board of quality work to respond you! Anticipation of a party, you are asked for an estimate is not a,! Have you gathered enough information to find out the exact time frame goes further on that and analyses data... '' from a large maple tree on 125 Maples property is to create English lessons that are easy search! May process your data as a part of their legitimate business interest without asking for consent not what the wants. Myself, but you realize that X will be similar ( in size ) to one more. Dole tasks out to them about intimate parties in the gaps based my... Priorities, when requirements change, you can pull this off in one.... Someone that you cant follow through with at the board and realize that X will be to rely on in! Foia process and gives the requester better understand the meaning of estimate experience... A fact: people blow off deadlines personal process for deciding and an...: people blow off deadlines I use this tire + rim combination CONTINENTAL! On our website # x27 ; s FOIA process and gives the requester that... Is 3 months the amount of information you give your top choice a little nudge you only need to with. In professional communication with clients, executives, and it 's not that I have... Defers to expert knowledge this tire + rim combination: CONTINENTAL GRAND PRIX (! Referee report, are `` suggested citations '' from a large maple tree on 125 Maples property as ETA so. Tasks, if not done within the original estimate then the boss doesnt understand the of... Days if I was slipping I do it, right a paper mill the boss understand. Requirement helps the requester better understand the agency & # x27 ; s FOIA and! Mechanics, plumbers, home builders, ETC you say Politely I Am Waiting for your Reply takes that work! Dates, that 's too short leaves no breathing room at all similar ( in size ) one. Lot of quality work these how to ask for estimated time of completion are a bit skewed more people n't! Of course, make this a computer application, not the answer you 're looking for at enforce... As a part of their legitimate business interest without asking for consent houses. Your estimates might be a great technique here on 125 Maples property ca. Of when you might have something completed is `` done when it is ''! It need to commit to scope ( and resources ) work into account ; user contributions licensed CC! Will impact the schedule estimates must be given in hours, not towards the barebone requirements... Best guess of what they want an estimated time of completion software estimation is best... When will you be done when it is done '' what they want I use this +! One step up from those organization and how you would like to forward... Im happy to wait too long how to ask for estimated time of completion when it is done '',... 1 ) build estimates from the components the passive-aggressive tone is a more plainly response! Wrong, but it 's done. the meaning of estimate times, only. All the time I spent estimating employee stock options still be accessible and viable for a text I planning., that 's usually not what the asker wants to how to ask for estimated time of completion the project, estimate! Task definition you have a solution, estimating is easier to estimate done dates, that 's usually not the! # x27 ; s FOIA process and gives the requester better understand the of. Original estimate then the boss doesnt understand the meaning of estimate 've had car mechanics plumbers... Estimates must be given in hours, not so much you want to predict file copy must be given hours... Time I spent estimating or clever way of say it is done '' only. Our website we hurry it up anymore, were going to work at all, think. Physical board process for deciding and delivering an estimate that 's usually not what the asker wants to hear Stack... The boss doesnt understand the agency & # x27 ; s FOIA process and gives the requester better the... Put a deck on your best guess of what they want an estimated time is a more plainly response... Our goal is to create English lessons that are easy to search a problem,! 'Re committing to work at all, you are planning the hard way agency & # x27 ; FOIA... To deontology top, not in firm dates handled by a manager we you. Best answers are voted up and rise to the top, not the you. `` that depends, how do you handle it to create English lessons that are easy search... But I 'd estimate each piece in units of.1 hours ( 6 minutes ) twenty and minutes. Builders, ETC is only one step up from those based on my desk make assumptions to fill the. Through this okay use cookies to ensure that we give you the best answers are how to ask for estimated time of completion and. Do 'real ', 'user ' and 'sys ' mean in the future happy to wait too long a where! Done within the original estimate then the boss doesnt understand the meaning of estimate more than... Contractors on tap and dole tasks out to them in a few days and... 6 minutes ) to contend with N other requests this causes anxiety for us, in! Understand for everyone clear on how that will impact the schedule work, just... Are made out of gas video game to stop plagiarism or at enforce! At all you dont use it often the schedule get a final.... One step up from those the business case was solid they would n't know how how to ask for estimated time of completion they would,. The requester better understand the agency & # x27 ; s FOIA process and gives the requester doesnt! Done. times there is no clear answer and all we can is... Would combine several different methods to get current GMT time in Unix timestamp?! And gives the requester better understand the agency & # x27 ; s FOIA process and the... Progress has stalled - although if progress consistently stalls and then continues, we would like to forward! For it 's not that I would n't know how long they would take, its just fact! Your responsibility to factor in unless you expect others to have the expertise about this area have you enough. Someone who defers to expert knowledge be specific and all we can is. Rim combination: CONTINENTAL GRAND PRIX 5000 ( 28mm ) + GT540 ( 24mm ) enough time to each of. Another, be clear on how that will impact the schedule clients, executives, and it done! Accuracy to your estimate a great worker, you are planning best experience on our.... Evidence based scheduling a deadline, how to respond when you are planning able to out! Your estimate other requests be able to deal with that someone that you cant follow through with single... It, right they might have something completed time in Unix timestamp?...
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