If the reservoir dips below 895 feet a possibility still years . We are likely witnessing the end of Lake Powell as we knew it in the 80s and 90s, Balken said. Glen Canyon Dam in Lake Powell near Page, Arizona on July 4, 2010. We don't know if the dam will operate as expected. That year is the deadline for water users to negotiate a new set of managing guidelines for the Colorado River. Even if nothing is done, he believes the risk quite low. Broadly speaking, dropping levels have created a lot of unanswered questions about the future. A warmer, drier climate will only increase the strain on Lake Mead and other water sources in the area Today, Lake Mead looks like a shell of its former self, hitting a new record low water level of 1,068.08 feet above sea level, according to a report from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Weve seen declines in snowpack at the headwaters of the Colorado River and its tributaries. This is very unpredictable and these are going to be difficult conversations in the coming years., THE HILL 1625 K STREET, NW SUITE 900 WASHINGTON DC 20006 | 202-628-8500 TEL | 202-628-8503 FAX. The bureau's report for June, added on to previously scheduled reservoir updates for January, April and August, paints a dire picture. With modest reductions in flow, they would be meaningful.. But the warming temperatures that were seeing make it considerably worse than it would have been. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. These ICS uses, at the high end, amount to two and a half feet of elevation in Lake Mead. Science Friday is produced by the Science Friday Initiative, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. But Lake Powell's current water level is the lowest since it was first filled almost 60 years ago. Drought contingency plans for the Upper and Lower Basin are now in use. However, the receding water levels have already greatly reduced the reservoirs generating capacity, to about 800 megawattsabout 60 percent. For context, on the scale of no drought to worst drought, theres no category that captures conditions more dry than exceptional. In the year 2000, the two reservoirs were 95% full. Contact reporter Tony Davis at tdavis@tucson.com or 806-7746. Asthe latest round of federal forecastsfor the rivers flow shows, its plausible, maybe even likely, that the situation could get much worse this year. Arizona, which receives 36 percent of its water supply from the river, according to the Arizona Department of Water Resources, has been hit hardest by the cuts. Lake Powell is the town's lifeline. A patchwork of other measures has been deployed throughout the Colorado River basin throughout the past few years, as drought and demand keep sapping reservoirs. BACKGROUND: Western water crisis looms as California complicates critical water deal. "It would kill 50 to 60% of the businesses in town," said Franz. LUKE RUNYON: Sure, so much of the attention in the basin goes towards the rivers largest reservoirs, which also happen to be the biggest reservoirs in the entire United States. Newsweek previously reported that Lake Mead's dead pool level is 895 feet, while Lake Powell's is 3,370. And it takes several years of good weather in order to bring the system out of drought. We can not, unfortunately, say that these kinds of potentially catastrophic events will not occur under climate change, he said. Water levels dipped below 3,525 feet the last major milestone before a serious threat to hydropower generation at the Glen Canyon Dam. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. . Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center Economist Lucas Bair previously told Newsweek that hydroelectricity, powered by the water, is a cheaper, cleaner form of energy. We called several of them and asked for discrete numbers that capture the current state of the Colorado River basin. Its been a vital force for the intermountain West because of its ability to store vast amounts of water and generate electricity for farmers, cities and towns in 13 states. New York, NY 10004. Creosote is one I personally like to call it the cockroach of the vegetation world because pretty much nothing kills creosote. And that group includes the Navajo Nation, the Southern Ute tribe, the Quechan Indian tribe. Hawes noted that the lake has never reached that point before, creating substantial uncertainty about what would happen. Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If the Salton Sea dries up, for instance, the amount of dust that the wind blows up from . What is the long-term future of Lake Powell? All told, about 40 million people in the region depend on the Colorado River and its tributaries, not to mention the fish and the birds and the other wildlife that depend on its water as well. JOHN DANKOSKY: How are the tribes preparing differently, maybe, than the states are? But if the regions dry period repeats itself, he said, youll need fundamental change. His uncle, Stewart Udall, voted to create Lake Powell as an Arizona congressman in 1956 and shepherded construction of the Glen Canyon Dam that holds back the lake while he was interior secretary in the early 1960s. A recent Bureau of Reclamation forecast overstated projections for water use reductions in the region. Climate change is driving more than two decades of drought across the region, and making it increasingly unlikely that Lake Powell will ever climb back to previous levels. Alex is KUNC's reporter covering the Colorado River Basin. They werent able to come up with an agreement. Kathleen Davis is a producer at Science Friday, which means she spends the week brainstorming, researching, and writing, typically in that order. Keep reading with a digital access subscription. In this column provided by Writers on the Range . You cant do that with groundwater. The reservoir is integrating all the problems we have, all the challenges we face show up in that one number, in that one place, he said. "Its unfortunate that thelargely natural occurrence of a drought has coincided with this increasing warming due to greenhouse gases," said Flavio Lehner, aprofessor of atmospheric sciences at Cornell University. Lake Powell is also a popular tourist destination for water recreation. Lake Mead's level is 1,047 feet above sea level. And by themselves they are no longer sufficient to meet the area needs. Lake Mead, which is fed by Lake Powell upstream, would likely be the first of the two reservoirs to hit dead-pool levels. And its easy to put them off if you get a wet year. Lake Mead and Lake Powell rise and fall together, said Chuck Cullom, the Central Arizona Projects Colorado River programs manager. Even though conditions may be evolving and getting even worse, we dont really have a way to depict that, because D4, thats that ceiling, she said. The water in Lake Powell is low because the amount of water in the Colorado River has been falling for decades. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience. And thats a word that youre hearing a lot more, is megadrought, not just this temporary state of drought. Water management requires planning for the future. By Jan. 29, when the "after" image was taken, Shasta was up to 56%. Both reservoirs have troublingly low water levels at 1,054.79 and 3,524.22 feet above sea level, respectively. Mead was created when the Hoover Dam was completed in 1935. The study is aimed, in part, at trying to help guide efforts at devising a contingency plan, to keep things from getting out of hand, Kuhn said. If decision makers do nothing and take no action and just let the reservoir crash without structurally modifying the dam, there will be a lot of really big problems.. He and his wife have four cats, thousands of bees, and a yoga studio in the sleepy Northwest hills of Connecticut. On the contrary, he said, its actually become this locus of huge uncertainty, which doesnt allow downstream users to make effective plans, because they dont know what their allocations are going to be. JOHN DANKOSKY: Yeah, so a lot of people, a lot of wildlife, and many, many jurisdictions, too. A years worth of rain and snow is missing from Utahs ground. The ranking by American Rivers is the sixth time since 1991 that all or part of the Colorado topped its endangered list. Some of Americas largest cities depend on the water from Lake Mead. As a key ingredient in everything from asphalt to microchips, scientists are trying to make sand extraction more ecologically friendly. Thousands of Tucson homes use 250% more water than you. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir and one that provides water and power to millions of people in southern California, has reached its lowest levels since its first filling in. Created by Bluecadet. Lake Mead, which is fed by Lake Powell upstream, would likely be the first of the two reservoirs to hit dead-pool levels. The pattern element in the name contains the unique identity number of the account or website it relates to. Lake Mead the largest reservoir in the Colorado River Basin is losing water at record speeds, dropping . Skip Navigation. And it's not a backroom voodoo mystery that only fortune tellers can forecast. Because of that, its expected that the Department of the Interior'sBureau of Reclamation, which oversees water management, will mandate onesometime next year. The D4 category is something that is only supposed to be designated when youre seeing conditions that are so extreme theyre only happening once every 50 to once every 100 years, said Becky Bolinger, Colorados assistant state climatologist. Lake Powell (credit: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation) The power pool mark is 3,490 feet of elevation. This is the highest percentage of land in the rivers Upper Basin since 2002, which stands as the regions driest year on record. At 3,522 feet, Lake Powell's water surface elevation is at its lowest point since it was first filled in the 1960s, per a statement. What about the idea of a water shortage? This segment is part ofThe State of Science, a series featuring science stories from public radio stations across the United States. Below that is deadpool level, which is where no water flows out of the lake at all, which according to Gus Levy of the Bureau of Reclamation, may cause the Grand Canyon stretch of the Colorado River to run dry, reports 12News ABC. Google DoubleClick IDE cookies are used to store information about how the user uses the website to present them with relevant ads and according to the user profile. These cookies do not allow the tracking of navigation on other websites and the data collected is not combined or shared with third parties. They've been ignoring the problem coming for decades and decades. This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC with financial support from the Walton Family Foundation. Lake Mead's water level on Wednesday was measured at 1,044.03 feet, its lowest elevation since the lake was filled in the 1930s. He believes the risk quite low off if you get a wet year off if you get a wet.! 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